Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Tuesday, 15 October 2013

Day 5. No response. :-(

After receiving no response to my email, I tweeted the AEC asking what their service standard was regarding the amount of time it takes to respond to communication. But in 140 Characters some truncation is needed 2 get my msg a X.

Here's what I said:

Dear I sent detailed email 5 days ago. Do u have Service Standards re comms response time?

How long do you think it will take? I would have thought 1 week was reasonable?

Monday, 14 October 2013

Day 4: Waiting...

Although you may think I have been absent from doing anything electorally related, I have actually been... waiting.

While doing so, I have been researching the AEC's Service Charter and AEC Corporate Values.

One of the AEC's three commitments is:

"An informed community
We will provide you with timely and accurate
information on electoral matters. Wherever possible,
we will provide this information in a language or format
suitable to you."

Furthermore, a "Value" of the AEC is Service:

"We value: Service
We aim to provide you with:
-convenient and accessible polling places
-assistance when required, for example on
election day
-privacy at the polling booth when you are voting
-postal and pre-poll voting options, if you cannot
easily access a polling place
-enrolment and other forms that are easy for you to use
-clear, accurate and timely advice"

I will let the reader determine what "timely" means in this matter. Perhaps within a week? Or before a serious recount of Senate votes commences?

I am remaining confident that the AEC will deliver a response within a reasonable timeframe.

Friday, 11 October 2013

Open letter to AEC

I have received feedback via several media that I should outline your concerns and my concerns directly to the AEC. Below is the text of a letter I have emailed to the AEC. I will post a response when I receive one.

Dear Phil,

Thursday, 10 October 2013

Recount... But not a complete one...

AEC has confirmed a partial near complete recount will be conducted.

Will informal BTL's be recounted? For example the 50 Waggrakine BTL informals as per my previous post?

I think this is a fair outcome. Noone (well... not many...) is questioning the accuracy of BTLs that have been reentered twice in the data entry process.

Next update tonight hopefully

Tuesday, 8 October 2013

Recount announcement and implications

So, the word on the street is the AEC will be announcing whether or not to proceed with a recount tomorrow.

I believe democracy will be better served by having a recount occur.

I have outlined a large number of discrepancies - some large, some medium and some that are just blatently obvious but minor (like the missing Democrat vote).

My next post will likely be Wednesday night as I won't have much time during the day tomorrow. If there is an announcement tomorrow, I will comment on it tomorrow night.

Waggrakine and the missing Democrat vote

This afternoon I received a tip-off from an anonymous, and also politically independent, amateur data cruncher who works in a non-political field. His/her analysis was maximally good, so let's call him/her "Maxine"

Monday, 7 October 2013

Waggrakine, recount, Kambalda & misc WA Senate comments

Thanks to everyone for the dozens of comments over the last few days. I have been in a low-internet area that would benefit from better internet. It is pleasing to see so many genuine, polite and relevant comments here combined with great educative discussion.

Avid media consumers will have noticed the following two articles which were based, in part, on my analysis:
1. The Age – Double Dissolution forecasts
2. Crikey – prospects and rationale for a WA Senate recount

In response to the comments on this blog in my electronic absence:

Friday, 4 October 2013

Friday update (v brief)

Thanks everyone for your enlightened and  enthusiastic commentary today.  If have read all your intelligent comments.

Nothing I have read our seen makes me think the process would be worse off by doing a recount. So let's do it if not only to legitimise the victors for the next 6 years.

I'm travelling until Sunday night so won't be able to individually talons until then. But I will.

In the meantime, check out At least two people claim to have actually voted btl at the geraldton booth. Not that this would have changed the result. .. probably.

But surely it tells us we should conduct a full recount.

UPDATE: For my previous article about the Senate composition in a double dissolution, follow this link:

WA Polling booths discrepancies

Here at Truth Seeker, we seek the truth. Simple.

Click to see multiple examples of vote discrepancy...

Wednesday, 2 October 2013

WA Senate - rolling observations post Distribution of preferences

Keep coming back here this evening for oddities regarding the WA Senate election.

(Updates in reverse order, so hence the "reverse donkey" numbering)

Button Press Preview

Tomorrow the AEC will press the button on WA and NSW. Queensland is behind by an unknown period of time (at least during daylight savings we know it's just one hour...)

Mini-preview below... Updates in a new post tomorrow...

Tuesday, 1 October 2013

ACT Senate Preference distribution

Here is my take on the ACT Senate Distribution of preferences, including a couple of graphs.

Senate button presses

Live blogging here today and also tweeting @AU_Truth_Seeker

6pm: Margin between LDP and FF at critical point just 2600. If FF eliminated at this point, No Carbon Tax would have been elected off just 0.1% of the vote.

3.30pm: AEC Advises that Distribution of Preferences in pdf format will be available today. I'll be posting analysis here when I can

3.20pm: AEC Tweets SA outcome as expected below

3.05pm SA unconfirmed: Nothing official yet, but a picture posted by a reporter evidently present at the SA button press reveals: 2 LNP, 1 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 XEN, 1 FF. Awaiting confirmation by AEC.

3pm VIC results: 2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 GRN, 1 Motoring enthusiasts. Brrm Brrm!!

1pm Analysis shows that the Liberal Party s Zed Seselja got elected before the Animal Justice ticket votes would have flowed his way

ACT: 1 ALP, 1 LIB as expected. Awaiting distribution of preferences

11:40: AEC advises that distribution will be delayed until 2pm. ACT likely soon.

11am: STILL waiting. 1 hour is much longer than expected.

10:30am still waiting...

9:20am Senate button presses will be happening today as advised by AEC:
Victoria: 10am
ACT: 11:30am
SA: 2pm

Senate declarations

It's approaching declaration time in the remaining Senate races.

Here is the Truth Seeker assessment of all the outstanding contests