Tomorrow the AEC will press the button on WA and NSW. Queensland is behind by an unknown period of time (at least during daylight savings we know it's just one hour...)
Mini-preview below... Updates in a new post tomorrow...
The declaration is due for 5pm (AEST), with the button press to occur prior to this.
(Does anyone know what time the button press is occurring? A comment or email would be great if you do).
My final analysis shows the following margins:
- Shooters leading Christians by 428 votes assuming all BTL votes flow as ATL votes. As outlined previously, this is unrealistic and no heed should be taken of this number
- Christians leading Shooters by 22 votes on "locked in" or guaranteed ticket votes + 80% of Party-share votes. This implies that GRN and SPORT will be elected. BUT...
- Shooters leading Christians by 54 votes after applying a set of assumptions regarding where these votes will flow (see my previous post for details on this). This implies ALP and PUP will be elected.
This is ridiculously close. With 9000 BTL votes, my best guess is a 54 vote lead. Is this significantly different to zero? No.
A further complication is the final ALP v GRN elimination which may flow either way depending on order of vote segmentation, or how the votes from the elected LIB and PUP/SPORT candidates flow.
If I had to punt, I'd say WA would return 3 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 PUP
Declaration 3:30pm. Button press at some stage prior, assumedly!
Given only one critical elimination is within 700 votes (and that is 343), I see next to zero likelihood of a change to the likely outcome in NSW. Earlier modelling suggested the Democrats or the Shooters would be an outside chance, and although the Shooters remain the most likely contender to unseat the 3rd Liberal candidate, Arthur Sinodinos, I highly doubt this will occur.
3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 LDP