This post is just a brief update of the current status of the WA Senate election.
Regular readers will be aware of the three critical eliminations in the WA Senate count: (I no longer consider the RUA vs Sport eliminations critical - the margin is way to large to be overturned at this stage).
1. Hemp vs Animal Justice
If Animal Justice lead, it locks in a GRN/SPORT combo for election to the final two spots
Applying the methodology I used to forecast the Tasmanian result, I currently have HEMP ahead by 688 votes. Note that the ABC calculator underestimates this lead, as assuming all votes are Above the Line produces a margin of 268.
Assessment: Hemp leading significantly and unlikely to be overturned. This "escape valve" for GRN/SPORT appears unlikely to bear fruit.
2. Shooters vs Christians
If the Shooters catch the Christians, a PUP and a Pratt get elected instead of GRN/Sports.
The Calculator is displaying a 296 vote lead to the Shooters, but applying a more sensible vote estimate puts the Christians ahead by a minuscule 60 votes. I get nervous trying to make assessments when the margin is 0.0046% of total vote.
Assessment: I have to say too close to call, but the Christians lead is helping Scott Ludlam of the Greens.
3. PUP vs LDP
I believe I am the only psephologist taking this elimination seriously, but I note the ABC calculator is currently showing a PUP with a 75 vote lead. IF above analysis shows that ALP/PUP is likely to get elected, then the consequence of LDP catching PUP is that the final two spots will instead be won by LDP and ALP. However, taking less notice of uncommitted BTLs leads to a current effective margin of 1322 votes. Therefore, the ABC calculator may flip in the next day or so and apparently show a victory to LDP & ALP. If so, don't believe it unless the margin is well in excess of 1000.
Assessment: I will keep a watching brief on this as the ABC calculator may shortly show LDP overtaking PUP. However - don't believe it! BTLs will influence the final outcome here.
How absurd that our fine representative democracy has come to this!