Part 2 of tonight's update relates to NSW's Senate election.
I throw another potential winner into the mix tonight...
Current count: 89.39% (yesterday was 87.63%)
1: Bullet vs FF
Bullet Train currently lead FF by 306. This enables future analysis. (Yesterday, BT trailled FF by 119). The lead will probably need to be approx 160 to withstand BTL effects.
2: DEM vs Animal Justice
AJP currently leads DEM by 180 votes (was 260 yesterday). But DEM will need to lead by a fair bit here to turn around this critical point, as DEM has more potentially loseable BTLs.
3: HEMP vs AMEP
AMEP currently lead by HEMP by appr 80 votes (was approx 65 votes yesterday). But note that HEMP is heavily favoured by losing less BTLs, so HEMP will likely win this battle if it gets this far.
4: DEM vs SXP
SXP currently lead DEM by appr 400 votes (down from 800 yesterday). But DEMs have more loseable BTLs, so will probably need to be up by 1600 votes to win this challenge.
New Critical Point:
If the count runs this way, then Arthur Sinodinos (LIB) will not get elected - it's all about who will win the 6th spot in this case. This new critical point is one which I did not consider critical yesterday as the gap was a large 2000 votes.
5: LNP vs SFP
If SFP survives this elimination, they will likely win the final spot from the Democrats. If they don't, the Democrats will win.
Overnight, the Liberal vote in NSW dropped by 0.11%, turning a big lead into a big loss. BTLs will have an impact, and SFP is more vulnerable.
Too Close to call - Democrat, Liberal and Shooters and Fishers all in with a chance.