Welcome to my latest update.
I will focus on WA and NSW. I have found a new path to the Democrats winning NSW, and present a new critical point for WA that may save Dropulich / Ludlam.
NSW: (Current count: 87.63%)
I have been raising the prospect of the Democrats winning the final senate seat in NSW. Yesterday, I described the likelihood as "unlikely".
Today I present a couple of alternative paths for the Democrats winning. To be honest, it's still unlikely, just slightly less so... Here are the critical points for DEM to win:
1: Bullet vs FF: For DEM to win in this scenario, Bullet must overturn a 119 vote margin (or 0.0039%) and overtake FF
2: Dem vs Animal Justice: DEM is coming last at this count, they need to make a gain of 260 votes (0.0064%) to survive
3: The very next count is HEMP vs AMEP - with a margin of 65 votes (0.0016%) to overcome - call this 50% likely
4: Dem vs SXP at count 40. The difference here is 0.02% for DEM to make up. This is approx 800 votes, and may be too much, but I would contend DEM does
Alternatively, there is another path to Critical point 4 above:
1: As per step 1 above
2: The very next count requires No Carbon Tax (NCT) to gain 0.0103% (417 votes)
Strangely, this will now position things identically to Critical Point 4 above, where:
3: As per step 4 above.
I will monitor this Bullet vs FF vote in the first count - a back of the envelope calc shows this margin likely to decrease with additional counting.
WA: (84.54% counted)
I have previously outlined the potential vulnerability of Sports Party candidate, Wayne Dropulich, at very early eliminations - count 9 and 10 (or possibly count 9 and 11, depending on the precise early order of other parties' eliminations). However, Sports has polled very well in Declaration votes, giving it a bit of a lead at these early eliminations, and I would find it unlikely if this momentum reverses.
Christians vs Shooters
It has been pointed out there is another moment of vulnerability for Dropulich - the Christians/Shooters&Fishers elimination (Count 21). Currently, the Shooters are looking at elimination, but if this margin of 183 votes can be reversed, including potential BTLs, then elected would be ALP's Pratt and PUP's Wang, instead of Dropulich and the GRN's Ludlam.
Animal Justice vs HEMP
BUT, although the Christian vote is declining and the Shooters vote is increasing with late counting, another critical elimination may come to the rescue of Ludlum/Dropulich. Two counts earlier, count 19, HEMP is leading Animal Justice Party (AJP) by 117 votes. If this is reversed, then strangely this delays the Christian vs the Shooters battle (I love the visual image created by this terminology!) by a count such that HEMP is eliminated, hence making Christians vs Shooters a "dead rubber" and giving victory to Ludlam/Dropulich.
Summary (mega geek alert here!):
IF Sport eliminated in counts 9-11 THEN ALP&PUP
IF Animal Justice > HEMP in count 19 THEN GRN & SPORT
IF Shooters > Christians in count 21 THEN ALP & PUP
ELSE GRN & SPORT
If I was up to the Kevin Bonham standards I'd do a flow chart, but I'm just not that cool :-)
Probably looking like the most juicily unpredictable state, but I note Kevin Bonham has it covered. His take on the critical PUP-LDP margin is 1569. The difference between the candidates BTL votes is 1501 (according to Antony Green) so I will assume the margin here is 68 votes.So, 3000 BTLs to overturn a potential 68 vote margin...
Does anyone have a coin I can flip?
I would suspect Jacqui Lambie (PUP) remains slight favourite if I had to make a wager on this one.