The forecast summary is as follows:
Guess what? No change to the "most favoured" outcome, again. Note that in Tasmania, my model is giving a greater than 50% chance of success to the Palmer Party, for the moment... I believe this is due to my model auto-updating to 100%, whereas in actual fact the BTL votes for ungrouped candidates would otherwise be excluded. This ever so slightly affects quota, creating a minor discrepancy.
NIL, apart from the Tasmanian issue.
Note that Kevin Bonham's blog represents the best discussion of the impact of below the line votes.
Noteable vote changes:
VIC: LNP+0.20%, ALP -0.08%, GRN -0.07%.
WA: ALP +0.13%, GRN -0.09%
Minor changes to chance of election by state:
VIC: AMEP now less than 100%. LNP candidate (Helen Kroger) now has a miniscule chance, according to my model.
WA: ALP now slightly more likely to defeat the GRN, SPORT slightly more likely to defeat
TAS: Discussed yesterday. In practice, although the PUP vote is in freefall, it still may have the best chance of winning the last seat. I still think, however, this is "too close to call".