Brief update here tonight.
No predicted change:
Vic, Qld, SA, NT, ACT
Yesterday's readers of my blog would recall that the critical equation for the Sports Party's Dropulich is:
Sports + Voice > Rise Up
Where this condition holds, Dropulich will get elected, as will Ludlam (Greens). Where it fails, it is likely Pratt (Labor) and PUP's Zhenya Wang are likely to get elected in their place.
Yesterday, I posted this equation was on a knife edge.
Today, we have seen the first of the votes for the Provisional and additional votes for pre-poll and postal. The absentee votes have moved strongly in favour of the Sports Party's Dropulich (+16 net advantage out of 15000 votes) while the postals are trending less away from Dropulich (-13 / 34000). For completion, Provisionals are -5 / 700 and are neutral (+4 / 15000).
The remaining uncertainty is the Below the Line vote %. This time in WA there are 27 groups. Last time there were 22. The range of Group Voting in the 2010 election for parties polling sub 0.5% was from 10.1% for CEC to 29% for the Secular Party. What percentage of Voice votes will be BTL? Given the large number of candidates still in play at Count 11, it is safe to assume that the net impact of BTL votes on the above equation will be zero, i.e. as many Voice BTLs go to Sport as go to Rise Up.
If the Voice BTL is 20% (upper end of expectations) Dropulich's current lead is 12 votes. This puts him in a safer position today compared to yesterday, especially if the assumption of a strong swing on declaration votes (an assumption that was perfectly valid yesterday) seems not to eventuate.
Current assessment: It's still very very close. Dropulich slightly ahead. This is reflected in my Monte Carlo simulations, showing that the Dropulich likelihood has increased from 60% to 61% overnight.
Currently, the ABC calculator is showing a win to the Sex Party. However, This is not a likely outcome. The SXP vote is full of minor party votes, which will leak significantly and likely lead to SXP elimination before the ALP is eliminated.
My hunch is then that the PUP candidate, Jacqui Lambie, will remain ahead of LDP after preferences securing her victory. I know my hunch is insignificant compared to excellent quantitative analysis of others, such as the indefatigable Dr Kevin Bonham.
My model was yesterday showing a very surprise result occurring in upwards of 20% of Monte Carlo simulations. Tonight, order appears restored. I will investigate tomorrow morning and post something by midday on Wednesday.