Here’s the second state in my senate series – South Australia.
Most likely elected Senate (SA):
1 GRN, 2 ALP, 1 XEN, 2 LNP
As with Victoria, I have updated my calculation of primary votes to allow for the latest polls, and slightly tweaked my method for calculating minor party support to allow for more national consistency. Variation is also slightly higher to represent more uncertainty than was previously allowed for.
LNP: 33.0% (+/-3.3%)
ALP: 29.2% (+/-2.9%)
XEN: 15.4% (+/-3.9%)
GRN: 9.2% (+/-1.8%)
NAT: 0.5% (+/- 0.2%)
Minor parties: 12.5% comprising selected parties
FF: 2.7% (+/-1.3%)
PUP: 2.7% (+/-1.3%)
KAP: 1.0% (+/-0.5%)
No Carbon Tax: 0.14% (+/-0.07%)
Likelihood of election:
LNP: 2 elected, +1% chance of 3rd senator
ALP: 2 elected, with 99% probability
XEN: 1 elected
XEN: 1 elected
GRN: 65% likelihood
Everyone else: 0! (Sorry)
3 Left, 2 Right, XEN: 63% likely
2 Left, 3 Right, XEN: 37% likely
- Two ALP, Two LNP, almost certainly
- SA appears set to reelect Xenophon
- Greens likely to retain the last spot but...
- No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics are a good chance to win the final spot, with less than 1500 votes statewide. Some would argue that for this to occur, the system must be broken.
As the final spot in SA has a reasonable chance of going to either the Greens or the anti-Greens, it could play in important part in a future senate. Perhaps, these parties may have different views on whether to repeal the Carbon Tax? J
In both the states analysed, there appears no chance for the coalition to make up the numbers to attain a Senate majority.
Over the coming days, I will publish equivalent summaries for other states. I won’t talk about the methodology – this is largely covered in prior posts. On election day, I will republish my full final results, updated for latest polling data.