By more good luck than good management, it appears likely that the swing from ALP to Liberal is so strong in Tasmania as to push the Liberal Party up to 43%+, but not so strong that the ALP vote drops below 29%. Together with the fact the greens will almost certainly poll 15%+, this will ensure minor parties are thankfully locked out of the Tasmanian Senate lottery.
So the final Tasmanian Senate outcome will likely be:
- 3 Liberal
- 2 ALP
- 1 Green
In the event of either party's primary vote falling beyond these levels, preferences will lead almost certainly to Family First Party being elected at the expense of the party whose vote dips the most. Kevin Bonham touches on this in his blog.
Tasmanian preference flows
ALP gets: SXP
LNP gets: Country Alliance
Green gets: Pirate
FF gets: Liberal Democrats, Rise up Australia, Palmer, Christians, DLP, Shooters&Fishers, Aus Independents, Senator Online, Katter, No Carbon Tax, Fishing&Lifestyle, Stable Population, Smokers, Stop the Greens.
I've got nothing against minor parties. In fact, the presence of a diversity of views in parliament enriches our democracy. I remain fundamentally opposed to the current system which is being manipulated by micro-party barons, as the system has the potential to reward luck and dodgy side deals instead of popularity. The current system does not guarantee that community views on policies are equally represented in parliament.
Thankfully, reasonable estimates of votes in Tasmania will not result in the election of "unrepresentative swill".