Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Saturday, 31 August 2013

South Australian Senate - No Carbon Tax elected with just 0.04% of the vote

UPDATE: Following more up to date polling and a revised more objective method of calculating variability, I have re-forecast the SA Senate composition:
Following these updates, NCT can be elected with 0.1% of the vote - and this is not even a contrived example!

(Original Post)
Senate shenanigans continue to be found. By my analysis, the No Carbon Tax ticket is 64% likely to be elected to the 6th spot in the SA Senate. This can occur if its vote is as little as 0.04% 0.12%. That is, if 400 1200 people out of 1,000,000 South Australian voters put 1 above the line for No Carbon Tax, they may well be elected to Australia's senate.

Friday, 30 August 2013

How to model Senate outcomes

Apologies for the length of this post - it ended up much longer than I thought it would.

There are a number of steps involved in forecasting the candidates to be elected to the Senate. This blog will briefly outline what I have done. Note that "Major parties" as used below is for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens.

Be aware that any estimation of party votes is dependent on polls at any time. These flip around. So the assumed primaries for my estimates will change frequently and the expected outcomes will too.

Everything in this blog is accurate at time of publishing.

Purpose of this blog - share the knowledge

Hello world.

Hundreds of senate candidates have nominated for the Senate in the Australian 2013 Federal Election. Preferences revert the election in some states to a random tossup. I contend this is a failure of democracy. This blog will tell the story of how your above the line vote may be misused by the party you vote for and given to a party you would never countenance voting for.

Poll Bludger comments quoted in Fairfax

Got published in the Fairfax press today:

"One industrious electoral addict writing on The Poll Bludger website as ''the truth seeker'' recounted that he had carried out 1000 computer simulations of the possible result in Victoria, using slightly different preferences each time. In 53 per cent of them, Mr Fenn won the right's final seat, in 45 per cent Senator Kroger won, and the other 2 per cent went to a range of small parties."

Good luck in getting past the Fairfax paywall.