Blogging Senate forecasts and results in the WA Senate re-election until officially declared.

Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Sunday, 3 November 2013

WA Senate recount mini addendum

Here at Truth Seeker HQ, we seek the truth however this can be brought to light. Rather than trying to do all the hard work ouselves, in this instance I will just refer you to the comments made by various anonymous citizens on my last two posts - herein exists a great summary of key vote variations due to the recount. Thank you for your collective diligence. I fear alternative time pressures may prevent me from doing the full booth by booth breakdown, but I am delighted others have gone to this effort.

Final WA Senate results... until overturned by the courts

Well, what a busy few weeks its been! Apologies for not prew in the PUP/ALP vs GRN/SPORT tag team match we've just witnessed). It is also pleasing that this means that informal BTLs were reconsidered, as per my request to AEC.

The revised data dump available online shows the Shooters vs Christian margin which was 14 votes in favour of the Shooters (and hence PUP/ALP) is now actually 12 votes in favour of the Christians (and hence GRN/SPORT).

What has happened is that the number of Christian votes is 25 higher than previously, while the number of Shooters votes is 1 lower. I could make a reference to this being a Christian miracle, but I will let the reader decide if He would intervene to elect an additional Greens MPs!

Notable changes in votes as a result of the recount:
All parties gained votes BTL, half gained and half lost votes ATL
Christians: +26 (incl +5 ATL, +21 BTL)
Shooters: -6 (-23, +17)
Aus Ind, AFLP ATL: -7 (these flowed through to the Shooters via Group Voting Ticket)
No Carbon Tax: -15 (This flowed through to the Christians via Group Voting Ticket)
This means the Christians fared 14 better on other BTLs, and the Shooters fared 12 better on other BTLs. This is slightly high, but not crazily so, given the new number of BTL votes recorded is 701 higher.

(post modified): It is now widely known that there are 1375 missing votes. I think it almost inevitable that a new election will be called. If so, it becomes a gamble to everyone, as we move into unprecedented territory. While a more pleasing option would be to include the lost votes in the manner they were at the counted in the original count, I doubt the courts will do this. I advise readers to view the comments thread from my previous post.

As a slight aside, I also talked about the Kambalda West vote (O'Connor), and stated that the Senate vote for Labor looked 50 votes too low. I note the recount has "found" these votes, with an additional 50 coming Labor's way and an additional 2 (probably BTL) as well. If I was more enthusiastic, I'd rerun my whole discrepancies spreadsheet that I created... (unlikely :-)

I have put some thought into possible Senate voting reform options, but I could not write anything better than the excellent summary that Kevin Bonham has come up with. The only addition to Kevin's commentary I would like to add is that the randomness of voting columns has distorted outcomes. While we acknowledge randomness is fair in theory, I think that listing parties by their performance in the last Senate election would be fairer. Sure, the Liberal Party would be Group A, Labor Group B, Greens in Group C in just about all states. But when 85%+ of people want to vote for these parties, what is wrong with this?

For the future... I doubt I will have the time to post weekly as I previously stated. I think it is highly likely I will resume blogging for the new WA Senate election, the Vic upper house election, and possibly some number crunching for the SA upper house election.

If I don't post again soon, I owe a big thanks to the tens of thousands of you who have visited my blog over the last two months. Also, thanks to Tim Colebatch, Kevin Bonham, Andrew Crook and the prolific Poll Bludger Will Bowe for trusting my work and reporting my conclusions. And thanks to those who have provided me informal information of what's happening behind the party lines, and the mysterious Maxine for sharpening my modelling. My initial aims were to draw attention to a range of unrepresentative election scenarios, and to test whether financial analysis techniques such as Monte Carlo Analysis could be applied to elections. I'm satisfied that I more or less achieved my aims.

Tuesday, 15 October 2013

Day 5. No response. :-(

After receiving no response to my email, I tweeted the AEC asking what their service standard was regarding the amount of time it takes to respond to communication. But in 140 Characters some truncation is needed 2 get my msg a X.

Here's what I said:

Dear I sent detailed email 5 days ago. Do u have Service Standards re comms response time?

How long do you think it will take? I would have thought 1 week was reasonable?

Monday, 14 October 2013

Day 4: Waiting...

Although you may think I have been absent from doing anything electorally related, I have actually been... waiting.

While doing so, I have been researching the AEC's Service Charter and AEC Corporate Values.

One of the AEC's three commitments is:

"An informed community
We will provide you with timely and accurate
information on electoral matters. Wherever possible,
we will provide this information in a language or format
suitable to you."

Furthermore, a "Value" of the AEC is Service:

"We value: Service
We aim to provide you with:
-convenient and accessible polling places
-assistance when required, for example on
election day
-privacy at the polling booth when you are voting
-postal and pre-poll voting options, if you cannot
easily access a polling place
-enrolment and other forms that are easy for you to use
-clear, accurate and timely advice"

I will let the reader determine what "timely" means in this matter. Perhaps within a week? Or before a serious recount of Senate votes commences?

I am remaining confident that the AEC will deliver a response within a reasonable timeframe.

Friday, 11 October 2013

Open letter to AEC

I have received feedback via several media that I should outline your concerns and my concerns directly to the AEC. Below is the text of a letter I have emailed to the AEC. I will post a response when I receive one.

Dear Phil,

Thursday, 10 October 2013

Recount... But not a complete one...

AEC has confirmed a partial near complete recount will be conducted.

Will informal BTL's be recounted? For example the 50 Waggrakine BTL informals as per my previous post?

I think this is a fair outcome. Noone (well... not many...) is questioning the accuracy of BTLs that have been reentered twice in the data entry process.

Next update tonight hopefully

Tuesday, 8 October 2013

Recount announcement and implications

So, the word on the street is the AEC will be announcing whether or not to proceed with a recount tomorrow.

I believe democracy will be better served by having a recount occur.

I have outlined a large number of discrepancies - some large, some medium and some that are just blatently obvious but minor (like the missing Democrat vote).

My next post will likely be Wednesday night as I won't have much time during the day tomorrow. If there is an announcement tomorrow, I will comment on it tomorrow night.

Waggrakine and the missing Democrat vote

This afternoon I received a tip-off from an anonymous, and also politically independent, amateur data cruncher who works in a non-political field. His/her analysis was maximally good, so let's call him/her "Maxine"

Monday, 7 October 2013

Waggrakine, recount, Kambalda & misc WA Senate comments

Thanks to everyone for the dozens of comments over the last few days. I have been in a low-internet area that would benefit from better internet. It is pleasing to see so many genuine, polite and relevant comments here combined with great educative discussion.

Avid media consumers will have noticed the following two articles which were based, in part, on my analysis:
1. The Age – Double Dissolution forecasts
2. Crikey – prospects and rationale for a WA Senate recount

In response to the comments on this blog in my electronic absence:

Friday, 4 October 2013

Friday update (v brief)

Thanks everyone for your enlightened and  enthusiastic commentary today.  If have read all your intelligent comments.

Nothing I have read our seen makes me think the process would be worse off by doing a recount. So let's do it if not only to legitimise the victors for the next 6 years.

I'm travelling until Sunday night so won't be able to individually talons until then. But I will.

In the meantime, check out At least two people claim to have actually voted btl at the geraldton booth. Not that this would have changed the result. .. probably.

But surely it tells us we should conduct a full recount.

UPDATE: For my previous article about the Senate composition in a double dissolution, follow this link:

WA Polling booths discrepancies

Here at Truth Seeker, we seek the truth. Simple.

Click to see multiple examples of vote discrepancy...

Wednesday, 2 October 2013

WA Senate - rolling observations post Distribution of preferences

Keep coming back here this evening for oddities regarding the WA Senate election.

(Updates in reverse order, so hence the "reverse donkey" numbering)

Button Press Preview

Tomorrow the AEC will press the button on WA and NSW. Queensland is behind by an unknown period of time (at least during daylight savings we know it's just one hour...)

Mini-preview below... Updates in a new post tomorrow...

Tuesday, 1 October 2013

ACT Senate Preference distribution

Here is my take on the ACT Senate Distribution of preferences, including a couple of graphs.

Senate button presses

Live blogging here today and also tweeting @AU_Truth_Seeker

6pm: Margin between LDP and FF at critical point just 2600. If FF eliminated at this point, No Carbon Tax would have been elected off just 0.1% of the vote.

3.30pm: AEC Advises that Distribution of Preferences in pdf format will be available today. I'll be posting analysis here when I can

3.20pm: AEC Tweets SA outcome as expected below

3.05pm SA unconfirmed: Nothing official yet, but a picture posted by a reporter evidently present at the SA button press reveals: 2 LNP, 1 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 XEN, 1 FF. Awaiting confirmation by AEC.

3pm VIC results: 2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 GRN, 1 Motoring enthusiasts. Brrm Brrm!!

1pm Analysis shows that the Liberal Party s Zed Seselja got elected before the Animal Justice ticket votes would have flowed his way

ACT: 1 ALP, 1 LIB as expected. Awaiting distribution of preferences

11:40: AEC advises that distribution will be delayed until 2pm. ACT likely soon.

11am: STILL waiting. 1 hour is much longer than expected.

10:30am still waiting...

9:20am Senate button presses will be happening today as advised by AEC:
Victoria: 10am
ACT: 11:30am
SA: 2pm

Senate declarations

It's approaching declaration time in the remaining Senate races.

Here is the Truth Seeker assessment of all the outstanding contests

Sunday, 29 September 2013

Updated WA Senate BTL flows

As I continue to refine my model for estimating BTL flows, I now add additional information derived from analysis of WA's 2010 Senate election.

Combining this information with the TAS 2013 Senate estimated still results in a lead to the Shooters in BTL votes, but only of 76 votes instead of 136 votes. Hence, ALP's Louise Pratt and PUP's Zhenya Wang retain a narrow advantage in the 2013 WA Senate election.

WA Senate - Below The Line (BTL) analysis

Tonight's update focuses on WA - the Senate race shaping up to be closer than Tasmania.

Friday, 27 September 2013

And you thought the current Senate was chaotic...

After utilising my specialised Monte Carlo models to successfully predict the "barnyard" nature of the new Senate, I have remodelled outcomes that would be likely under a hypothetical double dissolution.

NSW Senate - update 26-9-13

Brief update of the current state of the NSW Senate...

WA Senate - Update and BTL vote estimation - 26-9-13

Tonight I provide an update on the close WA Senate count.

In a comment earlier, I promised to determine a "transition matrix" for BTL votes. Using imperfect data, I have done so.

Thursday, 26 September 2013

WA Senate update - 25-9-13 - Greens/Sport leading...

This post is just a brief update of the current status of the WA Senate election.

TAS Senate - Below the line voting analysis

Between work and other commitments, I have whipped together a quick graphical analysis of how preferences actually flowed below the line (BTL) in a number of interesting mid-stage eliminations in the declared Tasmanian Senate.

Wednesday, 25 September 2013

Lambie wins!


As expected, Palmer United Party's Jacqui Lambie declared winner of final Tasmanian Senate seat.

Finally announced result:

More info posted here progressively over the next 24 hours.

Don't forget to follow me ‏on Twitter: @AU_Truth_Seeker

Tasmania - PUP set to win

After analysing the near final AEC figures, PUP's Jacqui Lambie is likely to win the final senate spot.

Tuesday, 24 September 2013

Senate update - 23-9-13 - 10pm update

Well, what a big day it's been in Senate counting - the AEC has updated Senate results from 146 of the 150 electorates.

While I am busy at work, I will be tweeting any odd or revised Senate outcomes so follow me @AU_Truth_Seeker

Here is my estimation for the overall Senate makeup:

Monday, 23 September 2013

Sunday non-update

Today, the AEC updated the results of eight HoR electorates, but only updated the Senate results of two HoR divisions - Lindsay and Kingsford Smith.

By my calcs, the number of formal Senate votes increased by 14 (not 14%, but 14 votes).

Next update approx 10pm Monday.

Sunday, 22 September 2013

Senate update - 21-9-13 - Part 2 - WA

Yesterday, I pointed out the critical points of the WA Senate election. Today, I refine my numbers using actual BTL votes to calculate revised margins at the critical points.

Saturday, 21 September 2013

Senate update - 21-09-13 - Part 1 - NSW

Part 1 of tonight's update relates to NSW's Senate election.

If Family First vote moves either up or down, outside a narrow band, the contest is open.


One moment you're winning the next you're not. This short post outlines another example of an AEC error.

Friday, 20 September 2013

Senate update - 20-9-13 - Part 2 - NSW

Part 2 of tonight's update relates to NSW's Senate election.

I throw another potential winner into the mix tonight...

Senate update - 20-9-13 - Part 1 - WA

Yesterday, I pointed out the critical points of the WA Senate election. Tonight I add a new critical point that could result in the election of Jim Fryar from the LDP.

(Tonight, I will also attempt to update the NSW Senate count - this is just as interesting as WA and should not be written off as a fait accompli).

Senate update - 19-9-2013 - 10pm update.

Welcome to my latest update.

I will focus on WA and NSW. I have found a new path to the Democrats winning NSW, and present a new critical point for WA that may save Dropulich / Ludlam.

Wednesday, 18 September 2013

Senate update - 18-9-13 - 10pm

A lot more counting in the Senate today, as we move closer towards having some more results

NSW Senate - an outside chance of another outsider?

Two nights ago, I got a bit excited. My Monte Carlo simulation model showed in excess of 20% likelihood of a Democrat, Ronaldo Villaver, being elected to the Senate. It was too late for me to undertake a full analysis, so I left this until yesterday.

Tuesday, 17 September 2013

Senate results - 10pm update

Brief update here tonight.

Senate results - 16-9-13 - 10pm update

Hello again - welcome to my latest 10pm update. This time, it's slightly later than 10pm... Also, I have chosen to focus on the State with the closest Senate election.

Here's the forecast senate outcome:

Monday, 16 September 2013

NT and ACT Senate - late counting update

Although there has been a bit of action and recent movement regarding the likelihoods of various States' elected senators, I have not spent too much time on the important Territory elections.

Here's a quick post regarding which Senators the territories will elect.

Sunday, 15 September 2013

TruthSeeker turns into FactChecker - Did Sex Party preferences "elect" LDP candidate?

In order to publish something productive in a day where the AEC has counted less than 1000 additional Senate votes nation wide, I thought I would respond to a previous comment on my blog from Anonymous and consider what would have happened in NSW had the SXP been less than cooperative, considering the question of whether SXP preferences elected the Liberal Democratic Party.

Would this have led to different likelihoods of election of NSW Senators, all else being equal?

Senate results - 15-9-13 - 10pm non-update

What a non-event day in Senate counting. I thought the AEC would have made good use of this Sunday to make some headway into the Senate counts given most of the heavy lifting has now been done for the House of Reps seats.

So what new Senate counting did we have today?

Saturday, 14 September 2013

Senate results - 14-9-13 - 10pm update

Welcome to my latest daily 10pm update of Monte Carlo simulated Senate forecasts.

Today was an unfortunately quiet day on the count with two states having additional count, two states having no additional count and two states, gosh, recording a lower percentage of votes counted today than yesterday!! (I think this was partially due to a series of recounts and vote apportionment from above to below the line... but I’m not certain. If you know, please leave in comments.

But I’ll press on regardless with regular features.

The forecast summary is as follows:

Friday, 13 September 2013

Senate results - 13-9-13 - 10pm update

Welcome to my latest daily 10pm update of Monte Carlo simulated Senate forecast.

The forecast summary is as follows:

Thursday, 12 September 2013

Senate results - 12-9-13 - 10pm update

Welcome to my latest daily 10pm update of Monte Carlo simulated Senate forecast.

The forecast summary is as follows:

Wednesday, 11 September 2013

Senate results - updated - 11-9-13 - 10pm

Welcome to my latest daily update of Monte Carlo simulated Senate forecast. Today, my “10pm update” comes 2 hours early, because I’m tired, so it may not represent the end-of-counting of the day.

The forecast summary is as follows:

Tuesday, 10 September 2013

Senate results - updated - 10-9-13 10pm

Welcome to my latest daily update of Monte Carlo simulated Senate forecast.

The forecast summary is as follows:

Thought bubble - ACT Senate BTL preferences favouring Zed Seselja

There has been a lot of discussion about the ACT Senate race recently. Others have recently reported that this is now a clear 1-1 split.

On current numbers, the total Liberal party group vote is 33.37%. This is effectively 64 votes above quota. However, it is likely the LIB #2 candidate got >64 BTL votes, so at least the first few stages of a preference distribution will be required. At this stage, Zed Seselja does NOT have quota by himself - his party does, but not him.

Senate results - Consolidated - 9-9-13 10pm

Welcome to my latest daily update of Monte Carlo simulated Senate forecast.

The forecast summary is as follows:

Sunday, 8 September 2013

Senate results - Consolidated - 8-9-13 10pm

I have updated the Senate results using latest AEC data.

Here is the currently forecast elected Senate:

Senate results - Consolidated - 8-9-2013 10am

In the most likely case, it now appears as if the Coalition will have a path to achieving its legislative reforms without having to rely on Labor or the Greens.

QLD Senate update - 66% counted

For the final state in the Truth Seeker series, we use closing election day figures in QLD.

Here are the results of the QLD half Senate election

SA Senate update - 71% counted

For the fifth state in the Truth Seeker series, we use closing election day figures in SA.

Here are the results of the SA half Senate election

WA Senate update - 61% counted

For the fourth state in our series, we analyse election likelihoods in WA.

Results are as follows:

TAS Senate update - 78% counted

For the third state in our series, we analyse election likelihoods in Tasmania.

Results are as follows:

Saturday, 7 September 2013

VIC Senate update - 61% counted

In addition to NSW, we have some near-final figures for Victoria too.

Here are the results of the VIC half Senate election

NSW Senate update - 64% counted

Now we're approaching the end of the night, and the end of updates. I will post figures for each of the states here. These are moving slowly, so I have applied a narrow range of variability.

Here are the results of the NSW half Senate election

TAS projections - actual votes at 17%

2 ALP, 2 LNP are 100% likely

Green 82%
PUP 71%
LIB 46%

These are based on 1000 Monte Carlo simulations based on ACTUAL votes at approx 17% counted.

Live Senate Analysis - South Australia

Tonight I will present my Monte Carlo analysis, based on official data as it's released

Live Senate analysis - NSW

Tonight I will present my Monte Carlo analysis, based on official data as it's released

Live Senate analysis - QLD - Glenn Lazarus likely elected

Tonight I will present my Monte Carlo analysis, based on official data as it's released

Live senate analysis - VIC

Tonight I will present my Monte Carlo analysis, based on official data as it's released

Initial data from VICshows likely senate vote of:
LNP: 38%
ALP: 30.5%
GRN: 13.6%
PUP: 4%

Likely candidates elected:
LNP: 2 +20% chance of 3rd
GRN: 1
FF: 80%

Vic Likely to elect a FF senator, splitting 2-2-1-1

Live Senate analysis - Tasmania

Tonight I will present my Monte Carlo analysis, based on official data as it's released

Initial data from TAS shows likely senate vote of:
LNP: 41%
ALP: 31%
GRN: 11.5%
PUP: 6%

Likely candidates elected:
LNP: 2, +50% chance of 3rd seat
GRN: 92% likely
FF: 25%
PUP: 25%

Tasmania Likely to remain at 3-3

Truth Seeker final polling estimates

Hello all,

This summary is based on final polls released in the last two days.

NSW: 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
VIC: 2 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 FF
QLD: 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 PUP
WA: 3 LNP, 1 ALP, 1 PUP, 1 GRN
SA: 2 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 XEN
TAS: 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
Territories: 2 ALP, 2 LNP
Total: 18 LNP, 13 ALP, 5 GRN, 2 PUP, 1 FF, 1 XEN

I might be short on presentation tonight, I'll try to put my efforts into data.

I'll update over the next half hour for all 6 states (territories will assume as 1-1, until evidence otherwise exists....


LNP 2, +97%
GRN 62%
ONP: 12%
Shooters: 10%
Building Australia: 8% (I suspect this may drop to zero later...)
KAP: 4%
<2%: CSG, SXP, LDP
<1%: DEM, CDP, Stable Population
Commentary: Drop in Greens, BAP extremely high

LNP 2, +82% for 3rd
ALP 1, +63% for 2nd
GRN 82% for 1st
PUP 71%,
Everyone else <1%
Commentary. Higher PUP vote of 6.7% leads to PUP likely to take WA Senate seat. Either LNP3, ALP2 or GRN1 may be lost if PUP wins.

LNP 2, +60% of 3rd
GRN 16%
KAP 13%
FF 12%
PUP 91%
Aus Ind 6%
Commentary: Palmer Party will be elected instead of Greens for QLD, if polling of 10% is confirmed.

ALP 1 + 66% of 2nd
GRN 53%
FF 34%
NCT 31%
PUP 16%
Commentary. Again final polling showing PUP strong (est 4.5% primary) and lower late ALP vote reducing ALP and Green chance of going 3-3 in SA

LNP 2 + 4% chance of 3rd
FF 86% likely
PUP 7%
Commentary: No change in Victoria. Still likely 2-2-1-1

LNP 2, with 80% chance of 3rd
ALP 1, with 90% chance of 2nd
FF 20%
SXP 10%
Commentary. No change from previous estimate.

ACT Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the final jurisdiction in my senate series – ACT.

Most likely elected Senate (ACT):

Friday, 6 September 2013

NSW Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the seventh and penultimate jurisdiction in my senate series – NSW.

Most likely elected Senate (NSW):

Queensland Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the sixth jurisdiction in my senate series – QLD.

Most likely elected Senate (QLD):

Thursday, 5 September 2013

NT Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the fifth state jurisdiction in my senate series – Northern Territory. Like all states, this uses the same Monte Carlo techniques to derive percentage likelihoods of election for candidates, given registered party preferences and fair expectations about my uncertainty of knowing a party's actual final vote.

Most likely elected Senate (NT):

Tasmanian Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the fourth state in my senate series – Tasmania.

UPDATE: I have run an alternative scenario based on a LIB primary vote that is 1% lower. See below for the outcomes of this alternative scenario.

Most likely elected Senate (TAS):

WA Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the third state in my senate series – Western Australia. I have decided to do WA next to give myself an extra day of time to determine the impact Clive Palmer will have on QLD and NSW.

Most likely elected Senate (WA):

SA Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

Here’s the second state in my senate series – South Australia.

Most likely elected Senate (SA):

Wednesday, 4 September 2013

Victorian Senate - TruthSeeker forecasts

I have updated my calculation of primary votes to allow for the latest polls, and slightly tweaked my method for calculating minor party support to allow for more national consistency.

See my previous post for the method I use within my model.

Most likely elected Senate (Victoria):

Tuesday, 3 September 2013

Tasmania - a close escape from "unrepresentative swill"

By  more good luck than good management, it appears likely that the swing from ALP to Liberal is so strong in Tasmania as to push the Liberal Party up to 43%+, but not so strong that the ALP vote drops below 29%. Together with the fact the greens will almost certainly poll 15%+, this will ensure minor parties are thankfully locked out of the Tasmanian Senate lottery.

So the final Tasmanian Senate outcome will likely be:

Monday, 2 September 2013

Truth Seeker hits page 1 of The Sunday Age, most read story online

"Computer simulations by a professional financial modeller writing on online electoral sites as "the truth seeker" show that depending on the exact votes for each party and order of elimination, the Australian Democrats, the Sex Party, WikiLeaks, the Shooters and Fishers, the Liberal Democrats, and even the Stable Population Party have a chance of winning Senate seats."

Article by Tim Colebatch and Chris Johnson, Sunday 1 September 2013, Page 1.

Also, this story was also the #1 most read story on

Thanks to Crikey and Poll Bludger for providing me the initial platform to raise these potentially undemocratic outcomes.

Saturday, 31 August 2013

South Australian Senate - No Carbon Tax elected with just 0.04% of the vote

UPDATE: Following more up to date polling and a revised more objective method of calculating variability, I have re-forecast the SA Senate composition:
Following these updates, NCT can be elected with 0.1% of the vote - and this is not even a contrived example!

(Original Post)
Senate shenanigans continue to be found. By my analysis, the No Carbon Tax ticket is 64% likely to be elected to the 6th spot in the SA Senate. This can occur if its vote is as little as 0.04% 0.12%. That is, if 400 1200 people out of 1,000,000 South Australian voters put 1 above the line for No Carbon Tax, they may well be elected to Australia's senate.

Friday, 30 August 2013

How to model Senate outcomes

Apologies for the length of this post - it ended up much longer than I thought it would.

There are a number of steps involved in forecasting the candidates to be elected to the Senate. This blog will briefly outline what I have done. Note that "Major parties" as used below is for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens.

Be aware that any estimation of party votes is dependent on polls at any time. These flip around. So the assumed primaries for my estimates will change frequently and the expected outcomes will too.

Everything in this blog is accurate at time of publishing.

Purpose of this blog - share the knowledge

Hello world.

Hundreds of senate candidates have nominated for the Senate in the Australian 2013 Federal Election. Preferences revert the election in some states to a random tossup. I contend this is a failure of democracy. This blog will tell the story of how your above the line vote may be misused by the party you vote for and given to a party you would never countenance voting for.

Poll Bludger comments quoted in Fairfax

Got published in the Fairfax press today:

"One industrious electoral addict writing on The Poll Bludger website as ''the truth seeker'' recounted that he had carried out 1000 computer simulations of the possible result in Victoria, using slightly different preferences each time. In 53 per cent of them, Mr Fenn won the right's final seat, in 45 per cent Senator Kroger won, and the other 2 per cent went to a range of small parties."

Good luck in getting past the Fairfax paywall.